Arsenal host AS Monaco at the Emirates for the Champions League League Phase Matchday 6 (that won’t ever not be a mouthful, c’mon guys, think of a better name). The Monégasques have the same points haul in the CL table as do Arsenal — 10 points through 5 matches. With Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund meeting today and results from yesterday’s round of fixtures, a win for either Arsenal or Monaco takes them no worse than tied for third, albeit with at least 4 other clubs. A loss or a draw would leave Arsenal (or Monaco) needing to win their last two matches to have a good shot at a Top 8 spot.
Monaco would be by far the happier side with a draw, as the visiting team always is, but they’ve got two difficult fixtures remaining in the Champions League. They host Aston Villa and travel to Inter Milan. Arsenal host Dinamo Zagreb and travel to Girona. Monaco are in good shape right now, but given their schedule, that could change quickly. 10 points should be enough to get a club into the next round, but they don’t want to travel to the San Siro needing a result. The Gunners, on the other hand, will be favored to win their remaining three league phase matches.
Arsenal.com summarized the Opta simulations for the table:
- 16 points was good for a T8 finish 98% of the time
- 15 points earned T8 73% of the time
- 14 points earned the 8th spot in only 28% of the sims
- 10 points got a club through 99% of the time
- 9 points got a club through 69% of the time
For what it’s worth, those simulations ran at the start of the season. 16 points is now about 87%-ish percent to earn a top 8 finish. Opta has as 19 as Arsenal likeliest points total, nearly 30% of the time and has them in the Top 8 about 70% of the time, which honestly feels a little low. A lot is riding on today’s match, I think.
Today’s visitors are tied second in Ligue Un on the strength of a stingy defense that has only conceded 12 goals through 14 matches, although their 7 conceded from 5 Champions League matches is less impressive. They have scored 12 in the CL, which compares favorably with Arsenal’s 8, especially because the Gunners’ number includes a 5-goal outburst against Sporting CP last time out. Arsenal have conceded the second-fewest goals through the league phase so far (2).
Their attack is led by 19-year old Eliesse Ben Seghir, whose 5 goals and 3 assists tie him with Maghnes Akliouche, for the team lead in goal involvements and lead the team in goals. Monaco have a number of familiar faces to international football fans — Breel Embolo (SUI), Aleksandr Golovin (RUS), and Takumi Minamino (JPN and Liverpool) — are all regular contributors for Adi Hütter’s squad.
Monaco, like Arsenal, are dangerous from set pieces. They’ve scored 9 goals in all competitions from dead balls (including penalties), which is a quarter of their total. Their 4 non-penalty set piece goals are the most of any team in Ligue Un. Adi Hütter loves to point out that around one-third of all goals in football come from set pieces and takes pride in how hard his coaching staff works on them.
Dead balls are an excellent way to score, particularly when your squad is a bit light due to injury / suspension. Sidenote: at some point maybe the footballing powers that be will realize that the schedule is too much (hah, as if). Both Arsenal and Monaco are dinged up coming into today’s match and the overall spectacle will be worse off for it. Mikel Arteta’s side are in worse shape and Adi Hütter’s squad issues are partly of their own making.
Arsenal have somehow added to their defensive injuries woes — neither Thomas Partey nor Jurrien Timber trained with the team this week. Mikel Arteta declined to update the media about the status of Gabriel Magalhaes, Riccardo Calafiori, and Oleksandr Zinchenko. Gabriel might be available for selection because his absences were believed to be concussion protocol-mandated and at this point, he’s beyond that period. That’s all speculation and just because he’s been out the required number of days doesn’t mean he will be passed fit. Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu are both out longer-term.
The Gunners’ defensive absences means that Kieran Tierney’s 16-month absence from the Arsenal lineup may come to an enforced end. Your guess is as good as mine as to who lines up at right back for Arsenal. It might be one of Josh Robinson or Josh Nichols, both U21 players.
The visitors will be without preferred defenders Wilfried Singo and Christian Mawissa for red card and yellow card accumulation suspensions, respectively. Expect Mohammed Salisu and Thilo Kehrer to draw in to replace them. Former Arsenal striker Folarin Balogun misses out on a reunion due to a shoulder injury. Midfielder Denis Zakaria, whose name had been mentioned in connection with Arsenal for a time, misses out with an undisclosed injury. Midfielder Edan Diop and winger Krepin Diatta are both out injured as well.
Arsenal – Raya, Partey, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly, Rice, Merino, Ødegaard, Saka, Martinelli, Jesus
⚪️
Lewis-Skelly starts at left back
Merino partners Rice
⚡️Jesus up topLet’s move one step closer to the next stage, Gunners
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) December 11, 2024
AS Monaco – Majecki, Vanderson, Kehrer, Salisu, C. Henrique, Magassa, Camara, Golovin, Akliouche, Ben Seghir, Embolo
WHO: Arsenal vs AS Monaco
WHAT: Champions League League Stage Match Day 6
WHERE: The Emirates Stadium, London
WHEN: Wednesday, December 11th, 12:00 pm PT | 3:00 pm ET | 8:00 pm GMT
HOW TO WATCH: Streaming live on the Paramount+ app
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