The 2024 FCS playoffs continue into the quarterfinals this weekend.
Who are the top contenders to win the national title? Who are the long-shots?
Every week, I will rank my favorites to win the national championship out of the remaining teams in the field. This list will get knocked down from 24 to 16 to eight to four, and then it’s national title time.
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The order of teams takes bracket positioning and matchups into consideration when analyzing how far a team can advance. It isn’t an exact ranking of the best teams 1-8.
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8. #7 seed Mercer
The least likely quarterfinal upset looks to be Mercer at NDSU. The Bears, stylistically, may not find much success on NDSU’s defense. And while the Bears are legit in their run defense, slowing down Cam Miller will be difficult.
7. #6 seed UIW
UIW pushed SDSU earlier this year before losing 45-24. Now the Cardinals get a second chance this weekend. The cold could impact UIW, but then again, it won’t be that cold in Brookings for a mid-December game. SDSU is rolling right now, and UIW is a three-score underdog here.
6. #8 seed Idaho
Idaho has a big uphill battle in the quarterfinals, traveling to Montana State where the Vandals lost 38-7 earlier this year. QB Jack Layne being back plus a fresher defensive line should make this a closer game. But the odds aren’t favorable for Idaho in this one. Not against this motivated MSU squad in front of a raucous crowd.
5. #5 seed UC Davis
4. #4 seed South Dakota
Full disclosure, I have UC Davis pulling out a win on the road. But the Coyotes are ahead of the Aggies in this ranking because they are about a 3.5-point favorite this week. And if USD were to win, it would match up better with Montana State than UC Davis, at least on paper. It should be a fantastic game in Vermillion. And the winner could push (likely) Montana State next week. But winning in Bozeman is the toughest path to reach Frisco.
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3. #2 seed NDSU
2. #3 seed SDSU
I switched No. 2 and 3 here. SDSU looks like a more complete team than NDSU in recent games. The Jackrabbits are playing just as well defensively as last year’s historic unit, and their offense has been humming compared to the choppy first half of the season. The Bison, though, are getting elite QB play from Cam Miller. And their defense, while inconsistent and leaky recently, matched up well with SDSU earlier this year. Plus, a potential (and likely) semifinal game would be in the Fargodome. And that place would be in early-dynasty form if this semifinal matchup were to happen. Yet, SDSU led most of the second half in the regular-season matchup in Fargo, a game which NDSU poured everything physically and emotionally into. An inch here or there, a makeable but missed play here or there in the passing game, and the Jacks would have won. SDSU seems to be hitting on those plays now. This isn’t my solidified pick if SDSU goes to NDSU next week, but the odds may favor the Jacks slightly. The national title odds already favor SDSU over the Bison.
1. #1 seed Montana State
The Cats have been locked in all season. While they have the 1-0 mentality, give em truth serum and they’ll admit that they know this is the best chance for this program to win a national title in decades. MSU’s offense looks like the best in the FCS, and the defense is playing at a high level. With home-field advantage, it’s hard to see anyone going into Bozeman and winning. And in Frisco, we’ll see what the matchup is. The Cats may match up better against NDSU than SDSU. Either way, this squad seems destined to win it all. Many of these seniors were big parts of the 2021 run to a national title game appearance and the 2022 semifinal run as freshmen and sophomores. They then experienced one of the biggest letdown seasons in 2023, exiting the playoffs in the second round in excruciating fashion, having the dynasty NDSU program on the ropes before losing on a blocked PAT. One could argue how last season ended lit a match under this MSU program to fulfill its potential this year. As MSU fans enjoyed the 2021 and 2022 deep playoff runs, there was also a thought of, “Man, in 2024 when all these guys are seniors, something special can happen.” Something special may indeed be brewing in the next month.
