Finding a weakness in Seton Hall’s defense is where Eric Dixon and the Villanova Wildcats can thrive in a Big East showdown.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Pictured: Villanova Wildcats forward Eric Dixon (43) reacts after scoring.
Conference foes will meet up when Seton Hall travels to Villanova tonight.
The two teams have had relatively similar, uninspiring starts to their seasons. Each has taken losses they shouldn’t have, and each will come into the evening with a winless record in the conference as we dive into my Seton Hall vs. Villanova predictions.
The Wildcats have played some better basketball lately, with four straight wins, including an 8-point victory over Cincinnati. Seton Hall has been on the reverse end lately, with back-to-back losses.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Tuesday, December 17.
Seton Hall vs Villanova prediction
My best bet
Eric Dixon Over 2.5 threes (+125 at bet365)
My analysis
If the Villanova Wildcats were a bit better, Eric Dixon would be in the National Player of the Year discussion, and even without team success, he’ll probably still end the season with some shouts. That’s because, as it stands, Dixon is leading the nation in scoring, shooting 54% from the field and over 50% from deep.
We will focus on that second point and grab Dixon to go over 2.5 threes at a very reasonable number.
Let’s consider the situational aspect at play here before anything else. Dixon is coming off the second game this season of not exceeding this number. That came against Fairleigh Dickinson, where he scored well overall but had one of his worst nights of the season with a 1-4 effort from deep. The most previous time this occurred this season was in November in a blowout win against NJIT. He followed that up with the most attempts of the season from deep and knocked down four. That bounce-back aspect he’s exhibited throughout his career and this season gives confidence here, and so does the matchup.
This number is very attractive at +125 because of the Seton Hall Pirates’ defense. It’s good. It’s the calling card of their program, and entering this matchup, Seton Hall ranks 36th in Kenpom defensive efficiency, making it a large part of this total sitting in the mid-120s. However, the lone place it struggles to defend is where Dixon can hurt them.
Seton Hall allows 1.02 points per possession off of dribble jumpers against the national average of .89. A dribble jumper is mainly defined by any shot outside the paint created off of isolation plays. Not only is Dixon the best one-on-one scorer on the floor tonight, but he’ll also have the most iso plays called for him, racking up approximately eight per game. Given the way he’s playing and coming off an uncharacteristic shooting night from deep, I’d like him to exceed this number, given the matchup issues for the Pirates.
Seton Hall vs Villanova same-game parlay
Eric Dixon Over 2.5 threes
Under 126.5
It’s worth it to get the apparent boost from a non-correlation here, so I’m pairing the Under with my best bet.
Outside of Dixon’s hero ball—which there will be plenty of— I’m struggling to see how either team scores regularly in the half-court. The Seton Hall offense is quite dreadful, and both of these teams are good at taking the other out of their go-to sets.
Villanova will find success with Dixon creating off the dribble from time to time, but even those scores will work the shot clock down and drag the tempo in this one to a snail’s pace.
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Seton Hall vs Villanova odds
Seton Hall vs Villanova live odds
Seton Hall vs Villanova opening odds
- Spread: Seton Hall +9 (-115) | Villanova +9 (-105)
- Moneyline: Seton Hall +350 | Villanova -450
- Over/Under: Over 127 | Under 127
Odds courtesy of bet365
Seton Hall vs Villanova betting trend to know
Seton Hall has hit the 1H Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 games (+10.00 Units / 8% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Seton Hall vs. Villanova.
How to watch Seton Hall vs Villanova
| Location: | Finneran Pavilion, Bryn Mawr, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-17-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Seton Hall vs Villanova key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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